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NEWS AND VIEWS THAT IMPACT LIMITED CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT

"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Friday, November 11, 2011

Theodore Roosevelt and the 2012 election

The 1898 Election for Governor of New York.
If some 8,893 voters had changed their minds Teddy Roosevelt would have been defeated. 


A change of only 8,893 votes . . .
Imagine Mount Rushmore with William McKinley's face and Teddy Roosevelt but a tiny and obscure footnote in American history.



By Gary;

The elections this week around the United States are typical of our normal elections. 

It was a mixed bag of results.  Some GOP victories in Virginia, a GOP defeat in New Jersey, a GOP loss in Arizona and only God himself can figure what the Hell the people of Ohio want.

In other words, a standard American election.

Politically the U.S. has not changed much over the centuries.  Elections often end up very close affairs because the people are very divided.

Mount Rushmore
With no Theodore Roosevelt would a
popular President McKinley have
been put on the mountain?
 A good example is the history book MYTH of Theodore Roosevelt.  The myth of the popular "Rough Riders."  The myth of the Colonel of the First U.S. Volunteer Cavalry Regiment.

But the truth of Roosevelt and the Spanish-American War is different. 

Only some 120 days after TR's charge up San Juan Hill 51% of New York voters opposed Roosevelt's election as Governor in November, 1898.
  • 661,707 votes   -   Theodore Roosevelt  (Republican)  49%
  • 653,879 votes   -   Augustus Van Wyck  (Democrat)  48.4%
  • 23,860   -   Benjamin Hanford  (Socialist Labor)
  • 18,383   -   John Kline  (Prohibition Party)
  • 2,103   -   Theodore Bacon  (Independent Citizens)
  
Some 1,349,974 votes were cast in New York.  A change of only 8,893 votes and there would have been a Democratic Governor and an open space on Mt. Rushmore.

Then and today the nation was deeply divided into two camps over issues like labor unions, war, economics, imperialism, state's rights and big business. 

2012 ELECTIONS

History shows that many of our Presidential elections are very close affairs.  The down ticket races for Congress, Governorships and state legislatures can often be the same.  The Roosevelt election shows that a change of just a few votes in a local race will catapult a politician into the national spotlight or send him off into obscurity.

With a divided government there is a certain amount of blame to go around in the eyes of voters.  Naturally Comrade Obama will be the focus.  A bad economy will reflect back on him to some degree.  But many times the mistakes of your opponent are more important than the positive actions of your campaign.  

Even if there is an Obama blowout defeat at the Presidential level, you should expect very close down ticket elections.  An angry American public might want Obama gone but then vote to keep the Senate in Democratic hands as a check on GOP power.

Anything can and will happen in the next 12 months.

"The Colonel" was not as popular as the GOP propaganda machine would tell you.  Only 120 days after the charge up San Juan Hill 51% of New York voters voted against Roosevelt and the Republican Party nearly sending Roosevelt off into political oblivion.


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